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Week beginning Monday 8th June

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Week beginning Monday 8th June

Postby Dave Thomas » Sun Jun 07, 2020 6:03 pm

First of all - I know many of our Welsh sites are now open, but only for those pilots who live very locally to them, so they'll know whether they are suitable to be flown on any day, Therefore I'll continue to only suggest sites that most of us can fly.

Anyway this coming week starts off as a possibility for the first three days and then deteriorates. However looking at various forecasts and Synoptics suggest we're on the edge of all kinds of wind directions and speeds from nothing to a reasonable soarable speed so at present can't say anything other than I'll update start of each day if I can.
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Re: Week beginning Monday 8th June

Postby Dave Thomas » Mon Jun 08, 2020 8:29 am

In our English area the wind is probably NE, but the Charts are pretty undecided really and some say West. The only thing that is clear is on the Cambrian coast it will be westerly and in England it's East or NE and around here it could be anything down to no wind at all. Cloudbase maybe up to 4000ft but with clouds building to 8 and just possibly showering. Similar-ish tomorrow, still undecided about wind direction.

These two days at present look like the only safely flyable days - somewhere but where is anyone's guess.

Wednesday sees the start of the change with clouds building to maybe 20000ft and a much higher chance of significant rain showers, maybe even proper cunims.
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Re: Week beginning Monday 8th June

Postby Dave Thomas » Tue Jun 09, 2020 8:36 am

Tuesday is broadly similar to yesterday, which in England had low level roughly east winds but clouds moving from the west, and the west coast of Wales was soarable - of course only of use to their locals. The forecasts do indicate slightly more wind today, but same issue with wind direction. Cloudbase was 4500ft at the Malverns yesterday, so probably about the same today, but no point in going early anywhere as it will take a long time to get going. Around here, anywhere high, top of Lawley or Wrekin which does have the advantage of a two bites of the cherry SE or NW. Or if lucky and the West wind does penetrate far enough inland then the Mynd though I think it unlikely.
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Re: Week beginning Monday 8th June

Postby Geoffm » Tue Jun 09, 2020 7:25 pm

It was actually really good at the Mynd from about 3.30 onwards - before that it had been weak, off to the south, and a few people went down to the bottom landing, others managed to top or slope land after a bit of scratching. But then the wind came on a lot more, picked up a little, and it was very thermic, good climbs, with a number of people getting 4000+ ATO. It lasted a few hours, not sure exactly what time people stopped flying. The LMSC cam doesn't show anyone flying there now, at 7.30pm. https://www.midlandgliding.club/weather-information/
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Re: Week beginning Monday 8th June

Postby Dave Thomas » Tue Jun 09, 2020 11:07 pm

Well my last 4 words on the previous post were wrong as it obviously did come on west in the end, which was great for those there.

Wednesday on simple look could be considered similar, however the lapse charts and CAPE index show a somewhat different view. towering Cu to 25000 ft could spoil anyones day. It all depends just where they happen to develop and whether they are embedded within any layer cloud and hidden from view, but at present I can't see indication of a blanket of cloud forming.
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Re: Week beginning Monday 8th June

Postby Dave Thomas » Wed Jun 10, 2020 7:43 am

This mornings forecasts have deteriorated for today, with the westerly wind never reaching the Mynd and further west into Wales much more in the way of large areas of rain, gradually moving east during the day. I think the only reasonable option might be the Wrekin SE side as it's as far away from the bad weather as possible and forecasts for that area indicate the light wind might be S or SSE.
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Re: Week beginning Monday 8th June

Postby Dave Thomas » Fri Jun 12, 2020 7:31 am

It's probably going to be too windy, but Sunday just might be a possibility for SE Wrekin, dry with very high cloudbase.
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