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Week beginning Monday 18th March

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Week beginning Monday 18th March

Postby Dave Thomas » Sat Mar 16, 2019 8:51 am

Early indications are still that this week is going to have some flyable weather for both HG and PG.

Monday is swapping about quite a bit, but with post cold frontal NW winds of somewhere between ideal and a bit too strong, there's a good chance of launching. We may or may not be in the good air - the forecasts are varying about a lot over the UK with relatively small areas having really good conditions, so it will have to be the morning RASP update on Monday to see what's looking likely - however that's not necessarily going to stop it being flyable, just not perfect. If it's windy-ish my preferred choice would be Long Mountain, but at present everything is suggesting it might be more west than NNW, and that makes it more difficult except for HG's.


Tuesday onwards, the winds switch to south of west generally and though rasp is not showing a star rating I think it's more likely to have periods of nicely flyable air at the Mynd or our SW facing sites, I think generally better conditions for most pilots to have some spring fun. Having said that, there a multiple bands of cold, warm, occluded front's out in the Atlantic due to come across the UK, so it all may change massively, but I'm basing things on my impression that the forecasts have been above average constant for this period rather than swapping about much.
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Re: Week beginning Monday 18th March

Postby Dave Thomas » Sun Mar 17, 2019 8:50 am

Monday is looking pretty well not far off west at the Long Mynd, forecast winds are between ok for PG and HG or the higher forecasts give it unlaunchable for PG's . What does seem to be agreed on is that it will start off looking promising with sunshine but then cloud over and deteriorate a little bit - a collapsing occluded front passing through, though as long as it's not too windy should still be soarable. The Synoptic charts I've seen don't detail exactly when and where this front will fade into a trough but at present is due sometime in the day passing through.
Elsewhere the air is due to be better further into SE England (but not entirely due to that trough), but due to the wind speed site choices are limited - much more NW direction down that way.
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Re: Week beginning Monday 18th March

Postby Dave Thomas » Mon Mar 18, 2019 7:49 am

Monday now looking rather disappointing. Wind bang on for the Mynd, but probably too strong for PG's and the cloudbase is due to be low and decreasing. By mid afternoon barely above the hill height. Go early for the best chance of flying I'd say. Careful if flying under heavy layer cloud as embedded towering Cu to 10000ft are forecast.

Elsewhere not a great deal better really, though winds are due to be a tiny bit lighter further south and the hills not as high.

Tuesday onwards the winds are very roughly similar sorts of speeds (probably slightly too much for many) gradually backing to the south west. End of the week things are due to change, but not necessarily for the better.
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Re: Week beginning Monday 18th March

Postby Dave Thomas » Tue Mar 19, 2019 11:02 am

Tuesday - Currently the webcams show it being much better than the forecasts, which should have the hill in cloud. The wind is west on the mynd at present, but it is due to go off towards the SW, and the air is due to be better further west anyway, so if it does go too far off, might be worth a trip to clatter/shepherds tump.
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Re: Week beginning Monday 18th March

Postby Dave Thomas » Wed Mar 20, 2019 7:29 am

Wednesday, supposed to be WSW most of the day, so Mynd might work for ridge soaring, though not ideal. Wind speeds should be ok for PG and HG but are due to increase in the afternoon so might get a bit strong then. Inversion level is low, barely 2000ft ASL, but due to be dry, with the current low cloud due to rise well above the hills. There is due to be a large patch of better less cloudy air between the Mynd and into the Peak district, so the options I think are Long Mynd or in the Derbyshire Dales or Peak district, elsewhere is even lower cloudbase.

Weekend, forecasts all over the place and swapping about, but probably a lot better than during this week.
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Re: Week beginning Monday 18th March

Postby Dave Thomas » Thu Mar 21, 2019 8:31 am

Wednesday turned out roughly as suggested, though only Black knoll was soared most of the afternoon I think, the Long Mynd launch was always too far off to the south until it got too strong to launch. Derbyshore peaks had good soaring and thermalling.

Thursday looks like being somewhat similar direction but forecasts vary between hardly any wind and just about nicely soarable. All depends if it's got enough west in it today - but it's going to be cloudy with a very low base.
Friday blown out
Saturday good
Sunday good
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Re: Week beginning Monday 18th March

Postby Dave Thomas » Fri Mar 22, 2019 9:28 am

Rasp differs from other forecasts, but this weekend does look very promising, certainly for thermalling pilots.

Depending on which forecast you go for, Saturday is due to be somewhere between North and NE direction with a cloudbase well over 4000ft, windspeed between not ridge soarable and fairly blowy. Options around here, Corndon, Sarn, 100 house. Snowdonia might be good if winds light. Winds light northerly and very good air in Peaks and Yorkshire Dales areas.

Sunday looks like being more North to NW in direction with the usual suspects for sites to chose from. Again an excellent cloudbase for time of year. RASP says we're in the best air.

Monday, forecasts vary hugely so not going to suggest whether that's good or not yet.
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Re: Week beginning Monday 18th March

Postby Dave Thomas » Fri Mar 22, 2019 6:09 pm

Saturday looks like being a good thermalling day, but rather light winds from the NE approximately. If you want a good chance of ridge soaring then go to the Yorkshire Dales or Cumbria where the air will be very good but with a bit more wind than around here. Don't go south - more wind but thick cloud until late in the day. Around here I think Corndon most likely for the XC pilots, or go to Snowdonia.

More chance for westerly ridge soaring on Sunday at present, but it might be a bit windy.
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Re: Week beginning Monday 18th March

Postby Dave Thomas » Sat Mar 23, 2019 8:35 am

It is still as described yesterday evening for today, but it's due to get good slightly later than the previous forecasts showed as there's due to be a lot of high level cloud for quite a time, but if that clears, then conditions will improve rapidly and get thermic with base 4000ft or a bit more. Best chance for decent XC potential I think will be Yorkshire Dales, so I think the national XCLeague will finally have some downwind flights on it of significance this year.

Sunday looks very good but might be a bit windy for the Long Mynd for PG's to launch, Elsewhere in the UK very good too and has some alternative launches not quite so big and high or windy down south (blown out in Peaks). Wind somewhere between WNW and NW. So Lawley or better still Long Mountain if NW enough.


Monday fairly good, light northerly with Wales best (Corndon or Llangollen maybe?)
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Re: Week beginning Monday 18th March

Postby Dave Thomas » Sun Mar 24, 2019 8:50 am

Saturday was as expected pretty much, though I hadn't seen that from the south there was a warm front trying to push north which made the sky in our area rather milky and weak lift. Up north plenty of flying including XC's in Derbyshire Peaks, Yorkshire Dales and Cumbria.

Sunday, a lovely proper post cold frontal day with us in the best air, but looks rather windy for many. The wind in our area is due to be pretty well on for the Mynd, but I think really for HG's launching. Lawley might be ok for PG's from the low launch early on with Long Mountain currently forecast to be not quite the right direction.
Further south the winds are due to be less and more NW direction, but the air is not due to be not quite so good, but a much better chance of actually launching in the first place to soar or thermal apart from them being so busy with rusty out of practice pilots vying for space.
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