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Week beginning Monday, 16th July

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Week beginning Monday, 16th July

Postby Geoffm » Sun Jul 15, 2018 5:14 pm

Some change in the weather this week - less sun, more showers.

Monday: looks poor. Good change of showers. Southerly, windy. Going westerly in the evening, a bit lighter, fewer showers, so there might be a change on the Mynd then.

Tuesday: looks like being a much better day, in spite of, at the moment, a poor rasp forecast.West, soarable, dry. Probably the best day of the week round here.

Wednesday: SW. Clatter, but it might be a bit strong for there. Will probably come on to the Mynd in the evening.

Thursday: very light winds at the moment, hard to pick a site.

Friday: N/NE, but probably quite showery.

Weekend: NE/ENE. Looking a bit windy at the moment, but a long time off.

(This week's forecast is dedicated to Mike Cluer!).
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Re: Week beginning Monday, 16th July

Postby David Broughton » Sun Jul 15, 2018 6:57 pm

Geoffm wrote:(This week's forecast is dedicated to Mike Cluer!).


WHY?
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Re: Week beginning Monday, 16th July

Postby Dave Thomas » Tue Jul 17, 2018 7:48 am

Tuesday is looking maybe a bit too much 'post frontal' with the chance of showers, though the forecasts since last night have reduced quite a bit in that respect. Broadly westerly all day, though may be blown out for PG launching at the Mynd some of the time. The other favourable option I think will be Camlo which has a shallower westerly face and it's a nice big bowl and ideal for ridge soaring and top driveable. Cloudbase not as great as of recent days, but perfectly ok for XC if wanted, though there are likely to be lots of spreadout clouds killing the lift in areas. Another option purely for XC pilots will be western side of the Malverns, but being a spine back might be unsafe to launch if it is windy. I think we're in as good an area as anywhere in the UK today.
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Re: Week beginning Monday, 16th July

Postby Geoffm » Tue Jul 17, 2018 9:13 pm

Flyable for hangies all day today, and for PGs much of it, though it was top end for PGs during the main part of the day.

Wednesday is basically southerly, maybe going more SW later on. A slight chance of showers. Really Clatter or Shepherds Tump.

Thursday: back to west, but pretty light, probably not very thermic. Other than the Mynd, if you can travel, Bradwell in the Peaks, or coastal sites in Wales, would be better options.

Friday: NW/NNW. Lightish. Maybe Llangollen, the Wrekin, Sarn.
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Re: Week beginning Monday, 16th July

Postby Dave Thomas » Wed Jul 18, 2018 11:06 pm

Thursday offers some promise, but probably not for ridge soaring. The winds might be light westerly and it should be fairly unstable and thermic. However it could very easily be no wind or any other direction in our area and the chance of a rain shower or even small chance of a thunderstorm. RASP tends to indicate west Wales getting good early and staying that way more through the day, but of course most who go out are likely to favour the Mynd. An alternative might be to head towards Caersws and decide whether to go up Clatter or Llandinam once you're there. If you get nice cumulus clouds then base should rise to 5000ft in the afternoon, but any big humid towering clouds are likely to be a much lower base.

For those wanting the chance to ridge soar, then the welsh coast in late afternoon could well give some nice smooth winds to do so.

Oh and if anyone has ideas of going to the Brecon Beacons in the light winds over the next two days - see Notam's as there are three temporary danger areas preventing flying completely in parts
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Re: Week beginning Monday, 16th July

Postby Geoffm » Thu Jul 19, 2018 6:40 pm

Friday looking poorer now. Starting off sunny, and westerly, but a front rapidly approaches from the west, bringing rain. Anytime from lunch time onwards, though forecasts are differing a bit. From the point of view of flying at the Mynd, get out early.
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Re: Week beginning Monday, 16th July

Postby Dave Thomas » Fri Jul 20, 2018 1:20 pm

Mynd had some PG's flying on the webcam this morning, but as Geoff said the front came in early before the day had any chance of being decently thermic.
Saturday looks a bit ropey too, probably light NE maybe going round to light north or NW later but not great air. For best chance of soaring, go later and maybe Llangollen as it's due to be windier there earlier and stronger.

Sunday looks maybe better with a light to moderate NNW wind, much better air down in south east England though. For a better chance of thermalling, south Wales, Avon, Thames valley sites maybe.
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Re: Week beginning Monday, 16th July

Postby Dave Thomas » Sat Jul 21, 2018 8:04 am

Saturday forecast is broadly smilar as described yesterday but with some significan changes. Around here i would still say go late for best conditions and most wind, but the lady ng mynd area is in an area that could well be north or north east yet just a bit furtger west the winds might even be west. Thats the benefit of us having all our eeather stations, you can lok and make up your mind befire you go to site. Llangollen most likely to get enough wind to ridge soar earlist, but forecasts inicate it being sunniest and windiest in our area right on until late evening which might be good for some. There is a chance of rain in our area this afternoon.

Elsewhere the peak district looks more reliable for ridge soaring today wnw or nw direction. For thermallng near here the malverns or blorenge might be ok or down in thames valley.

Sunday looks lke a more reliable wind.
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Re: Week beginning Monday, 16th July

Postby Dave Thomas » Sun Jul 22, 2018 8:15 am

The forecasts are not all in agreement for today, with virtually no wind or a nice just about soarable west on the mynd. Its currently west but grey and murky sky but clatter shows lots of sun, so if that heads east all will be better I hope. Much more wind to the north east of our area and a nw direction but at present i think the peak district may end up being blown out. Wrekin might work if its NW at shawbury weather station on xcweather website and our other sites arent in enough wind. Xc potential starts ok but deteriorates from the notth west but gets better into south east england.

So I'd suggest llandinam if the mynd doesn't look like being ridge soarable as there shoukd be more west wind over there. Mynd if its on or wrekin. Elsewhere for xc only malverns west or merthyr maybe.
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Re: Week beginning Monday, 16th July

Postby Howard Holt » Mon Jul 23, 2018 12:46 am

Hi Dave,
Thanks for the post so early in the morning. It was a difficult one to call. I almost stayed in bed but after your post I took a punt on the Mynd thinking I could do with a days ground handling, and was rewarded with some great flying conditions. Had about 4 hours of mostly thermic flying. Quite a good turnout considering. I had expected the wind to go off to the north and had considered Llangollen again but couldn't face the drive. Didn't expect to see much blue sky but we had plenty of that too. 2.8m/s best average climb and 1379m max altitude. Brill day great to see everyone even if only briefly.
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