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Week beginning Monday, 2nd July

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Week beginning Monday, 2nd July

Postby Geoffm » Sun Jul 01, 2018 10:19 pm

More easterlies at the start of the week, but generally, it's a difficult week to predict.

Monday and Tuesday are likely to be too windy, then from Wednesday the winds drop significantly. On Wednesday, it's very light, with a front going across our area. Further north, it might be better and more thermic, so maybe the Peaks, probably Mam Tor.

Thursday is more westerly, but there is a risk of thunderstorms.

The rest of the week is very light, hard to predict really.
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Re: Week beginning Monday, 2nd July

Postby Dave Thomas » Tue Jul 03, 2018 8:47 pm

Wednesday is looking quite promising - winds drop considerably and a nice inversion/cloudbase. There is the chance that some cloud above the inversion level will form to cut down thermal strength. Winds around here probably starting off pretty well easterly and at some stage going south east - if it does then Wrekin could come on nicely in the early evening. Otherwise it will be Corndon. The other relatively near option will be Snowdonia for best bet or peak district. south of here looks poor, so Malverns might be ok for ridge soaring - better than our sites, but much less promising for any XC potential.
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Re: Week beginning Monday, 2nd July

Postby Dave Thomas » Wed Jul 04, 2018 10:12 am

morning's forecasts - wind has reduced even further still, but much nicer air than of recent days. could be good for thermalling, but less likely for anyone just wanting to ridge soar, though at this moment the Malverns weather station is showing a reasonable easterly breeze.

The Sarn weather station as just gone off air - it's not because of the monthly EE data allowance expiring, I'm guessing it's a mobile phone signal issue, but unless anyones nearby with an EE phone we can't tell.
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Re: Week beginning Monday, 2nd July

Postby Dave Thomas » Thu Jul 05, 2018 8:17 am

Thursday has forecasts with slightly differing windspeeds - from almost non to just about soarable. However the cloudbase and there is due to be cumulus clouds today will be very high, but in our area it's best to go early as during the afternoon conditions will deteriorate from the NW. Cloudbase by RASP gets to 6000ft plus around here but deteriorates in lapse rate pretty quickly in the afternoon making getting there looking difficult to impossible.

Winds are due to be roughly west early on and then gradually go round to the north, but this is bound to have many local variations. It will sea breeze during the day, and that's likely to affect sites such as Llangollen, Llandinam even the Lawley.
Ideas - Llandinam early on as it's big and launchable when light or windy but might be no good by mid-afternoon. Possibly Llangollen for similar reasons. Mynd early on for those who can't bear walking more than 50 yards, but as it stands it should be too far north during the day, but will still have the potential for launching into thermals only anyway. Lawley if it's NW or more northerly. A little further afield, 100 house, Blorenge, westbury, combe gibbet. The wind around the Cotswolds is supposed to be northerly early on but I think too light for Leckhampton - it's difficult there when light. The peak district is due more wind, and even though the cloudbase and RASP XC forecast is not as great as elsewhere it may well work far better for ridge and XC for more people.
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Re: Week beginning Monday, 2nd July

Postby Dave Thomas » Thu Jul 05, 2018 11:29 pm

Thursday worked for XC in our area - with some monster flights done by the top guys from the Lawley, and other big ones from Llangollen, and Malverns, plus Bradwell and Combe Gibbet - probably other places as well - with a massively high cloudbase - Graham steel getting to almost 8000ft in the middle of the afternoon after leaving the Lawley at lunchtime.

Friday is an interesting day - especially from the point of view of suggesting where to go. BBC indicate probably enough wind to soar some of the bigger hills, but other forecasts saying too light. Then there's the issue of cloud around our area, both mid level and spreadout from cumulus. It doesn't look too thick, but it could easily spoil the thermals, further east or west is not the same, with the west having more of a west or WSW direction while to the east of us it being more N or NW for much of the day. Probably erring on the side of caution and picking the most probable site will be the Long Mynd around here, but it could be a day of waiting for the elusive thermal to dive off into if the pessimistic wind and cloud forecasts are right. I'm really struggling with alternatives further afield - possibly better air with less cloud build up, but so many areas have little hills. At a guess I can think of Bradwell or Combe Gibbet in the far eastern side, and maybe mid wales site at Cemmaes before the sea breeze in the west, failing that our Camlo just might be ok. Elan Valley has an embargo tomorrow on flying due to stock movement.

If you go flying Friday, make sure you check out the temporary class D airspace affecting the afternoon in our area and over the Malverns.
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Re: Week beginning Monday, 2nd July

Postby Dave Thomas » Sat Jul 07, 2018 8:05 am

Sorry, only brief as am away in london. Similar strong conditions as yesterday, but no wind in our area to soar. Any chance to ridge soar looks like peaks ar possibly coastal sea breeze. For a hill to go xc, anywhere really high might do.
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