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Week beginning Monday, 21st May

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Week beginning Monday, 21st May

Postby Geoffm » Sun May 20, 2018 7:57 pm

After a good week last week, this week is gradually getting worse, as the winds pick up.

Monday: easterly, should be flyable but possibly a little light for Corndon. The Malverns or the Peaks are probably a better bet. Possibly some rain late afternoon early evening.

Tuesday: NE/NNE, and a little stronger. Corndon locally.

Wednesday: Still E, ENE. Winds gradually picking up. Cordon should be ok for much of the day though.

And Thursday onwards seems to be blown out.
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Re: Week beginning Monday, 21st May

Postby Dave Thomas » Tue May 22, 2018 6:36 am

I don't think much was achieved on Monday - Malverns I think were got by thunderstorms at some point and not a lot going on beforehand apart from some limited soaring from what I've heard.

Tuesday - forecasts seem to indicate a much lower chance of nasty big clouds today, especially in Wales where it is also less windy. Direction NE with a bit more East the further west into Wales. Probably too far to the east for Sarn, so Corndon the only realistic option as it may be too far east for 100House or PenyC . Gliding forecasts say Wales is the only prospect for thermalling XC conditions. Cloudbase nothing like we've had recently, 3000 rising to maybe 4500ft max, but the lapse rate chart for Newtown shows no indication of the growth potential like yesterday which is key. The fact that at present there's quite a bit of high cover showing on the satellites is I think a benefit as it will slow down the thermal development and reduce the cu-nim chance further

Wednesday broadly similar to Tuesday, possibly a bit further East in direction
Thursday - forecasts vary - but it might be the stat of the rainy period.
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Re: Week beginning Monday, 21st May

Postby Geoffm » Tue May 22, 2018 10:32 pm

Corndon was obviously working for XC today, with two flights in the league at the time of posting this, Lewis Price with 77, and Aaron Binks, 63.8. Excellent. It did, apparently, get windy in the evening, with Marcus Tett reporting on out Telegram group that it was blown out.

Tomorrow, Wednesday, is Corndon again. I think the wind might be top end, and it's gradually picking up during the day, so better be there earlier rather than later, if you can. But thermic. Again.

Rest of the week still likely to be blown out, but that could change.
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Re: Week beginning Monday, 21st May

Postby Dave Thomas » Tue May 22, 2018 11:25 pm

Wednesday, not looking as great as Tuesday, but I think there's a couple of options as it's less windy in north Wales again and with more east in the direction this time. Penyclodiau East if you don't want to go to Corndon. Bear in mind though that Corndon does work when it's windy, as the wind forms a venturi around the sides of the hill - the very reason it's not suitable for low airtimers without an experienced guide there on the day (it's just too dangerous if you get in the air around the edges of the hill). What that does mean is the actual bit of the hill that works tends to be less windy than lower down around the edges, but it's not really suitable for ridge soaring except on very rare occasions. Looks like the only chance for a week if you want to fly anywhere around here.
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Re: Week beginning Monday, 21st May

Postby Dave Thomas » Sat May 26, 2018 6:24 am

Bank Holiday forecast
Saturday, most forecasts say ENE to NE direction and probably too windy even for Corndon. The lapse charts are not great so no chance of getting very high in thermals even if you can fly - the wind increases a little during the day as well and apart from being totally foggy it's breezy already.
Sunday, complete washout, very windy, rain, possible thunderstorms - what more could you ask for?

Monday, at present holds some promise, but the forecasts vary greatly, from showing a nice sunny day with gentle easterlies, to overcast and with light and variable winds in all directions around here. Over the next couple of days we should get a clearer view if the forecasts merge into one.
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