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Week Beginning Monday 6th January

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Week Beginning Monday 6th January

Postby Dave Thomas » Sun Jan 05, 2020 12:53 pm

I've been watching for a few days and Wednesday looked like being ok at the Mynd, but that seems to have changed now with rain in the day. The general flow all week is between SW and NW and varying between ideal ridge soaring speeds and too windy, so as long as the rain or low cloud does not coincide with the wind being the right speed, then there's a chance of at least one day being flyable on at least one of our sites. Can't be more enthusiastic than that at this moment.
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Re: Week Beginning Monday 6th January

Postby Dave Thomas » Tue Jan 07, 2020 10:55 am

Wednesday looks like a 'probable' for the Mynd, maybe just the morning though low cloud may well spoil things. Rain is due later in the day, forecasts vary between lunchtime and 4pm. After that forecasts are varying wildly, so for Friday can't say whether it's likely to be flyable or not yet.
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Re: Week Beginning Monday 6th January

Postby Dave Thomas » Wed Jan 08, 2020 7:32 am

Today is still a 'probable' to my mind for the Mynd. The satellite images seem to suggest that reality is behind the synoptic charts showing an occluded front moving SE. Wind direction broadly west all day, gradually getting lighter, and in fact may never be very strong anyway, but the cloud of which there's supposed to be a full blanket of it being up to 1000ft above take off at best- or so the Lapse charts say. The forecast rain does not look like it's due to get to our area from the south until after dark.


Friday, some forecasts have it being better than today, but others not so with gusty winds rapidly backing from NW to S.
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Re: Week Beginning Monday 6th January

Postby Dave Thomas » Wed Jan 08, 2020 1:37 pm

Much better than a 'probable', loads of pilots flying pretty well all day so far. max height I think about 600ft in good ridge lift.
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Re: Week Beginning Monday 6th January

Postby Dave Thomas » Thu Jan 09, 2020 10:11 am

Friday has forecasts on the face of it looking pretty good for flying but the lapse rate charts don't look anywhere near so promising with cloudbase quite low except in the far west of Wales, though if the high pressure ridge moves a bit it could improve a lot. Wind direction anywhere from WSW to SW.

Just in case anyone's thinking of it as an option - Long mynd Black Knoll end is out for shooting purposes tomorrow.

Update - Thursday - ie. today might be ok later on shortly before dark as the winds will drop in speed a lot, cloudbase not very high, but it's a possibility. winds in N Wales due to be WNW, south of the Mynd WSW, so Mynd could be anywhere in between. Looking at the sky it will be unstable air so might be of interest to the more experienced pilots to play for a short while.
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Re: Week Beginning Monday 6th January

Postby Dave Thomas » Thu Jan 09, 2020 2:20 pm

winds dropped at the mynd to what looks like a nice peachy speed - I'm not there to confirm but get over there if you can
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Re: Week Beginning Monday 6th January

Postby Dave Thomas » Fri Jan 10, 2020 7:45 am

Friday, I'm rather cautiously saying Mynd again, but it well not be any good for two reasons. First of all the wind in our area is due to be WSW to SW in direction during the day, but it's right on the edge of where it turns to a more westerly direction in the Midlands, and further south it's due to remain W to WNW. Secondly the laps charts show that cloudbase where it happens is likely to barely be above the hills, though at the Mynd it could well be pretty clear most of the day, whereas further west the chance of heavy low cloud is much greater, so that puts a much greater risk for clatter, camlo, shepherds tump of being a bit too high to have decent cloud free soaring, having said that though the cloudbase is much higher further west than at the Mynd and the wind speed is due to be a bit higher in case the Mynd is too light.

reminder - no flying down to black knoll today due to shooting.
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Re: Week Beginning Monday 6th January

Postby Dave Thomas » Sat Jan 11, 2020 5:13 pm

Sunday now looks blown out - starting off rainy then drying out but too windy until after dark (west and backing SW just as the wind gets light and the sky gets dark)
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