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Week beginning Monday, 6th May

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Week beginning Monday, 6th May

Postby Geoffm » Sun May 05, 2019 5:31 pm

I can't really decide about Monday, not least because the forecasts are giving different amount of north. Lighter winds, some possiblity of showers later on. But in terms of wind direction, it's either on the Mynd all day, or it goes north very early on. Hopefully, will be clearer tomorrow.

Tuesday is SE, with some chance of light showers. Lightish winds too. Mabe the Wrekein, Corndon, Gyrn.

Wednesday: rubbish at the moment, with a high chance of significant rain. NE.

Thursday: Back to west. Or NNW. Light. Or maybe strong. Who knows? The forecasts certainly don't.

Friday: probably west, but high chance of showers.
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Re: Week beginning Monday, 6th May

Postby Dave Thomas » Mon May 06, 2019 7:47 am

It's all about timing today, top end westerly for pg, but ideal for hg. However the cold front will kill things early in our area. Watch the webcams, but I'd suggest camlo as its further from the front. Alternative go much further south or maybe peaks later after the front has cleared there. There are showers possible either side so could have some wet patches. If it all comes right it could be a better xc day here than yesterday, though there were plenty of big xc flights elsewhere
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Re: Week beginning Monday, 6th May

Postby Dave Thomas » Tue May 07, 2019 6:24 am

Tuesday has a variety of forecasts with rasp being massively more promising than all others. Winds are due to be gradually increasing from very light to moderate from anywhere between sse and ssw with many local variations. Most forecasts suggest the chance of rain increasing during the day..
I think the reason for the variance in forecasts is due to a couple of occluded fronts, and the exact positioning of them, and in which direction they are moving, which looks to me like they go south then back up north or stall where they are..
A reasonable chance of some soaring if you are lucky and go to the right site at the right time. For xc further south looks a lot better, brecon beacons, golden ball for instance, but still rain probable with towering cu down there.
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Re: Week beginning Monday, 6th May

Postby Geoffm » Tue May 07, 2019 7:21 pm

Some XCs from our sites on Monday. The Mynd of course, before they all packed up when it got really windy. Also Llandinam and Clunbury, the latter being a rarely flown site - because of the poor parking I think.

Wednesday and Thursday both still look a write-off. Friday, pick your forecast. Great XC day on the Mynd. Or showery and SE, on Corndon.

Saturday is looking quite good at the moment. Thermic, windy, but NNW or N, so Long Mountain could be the place.

Sunday? Pick your forecast. It's either NW or SE..... I'd say just go to the Wrekin, where you have both directions. Except that other forecasts say SW.
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Re: Week beginning Monday, 6th May

Postby Dave Thomas » Thu May 09, 2019 8:27 am

Friday, Looks like being somewhere between South and West during the day, might be rainy and might not be. Therefore I'm undecided yet whether it's worth trying to fly, Synoptic charts don't help a great deal but there is due to be a trough to our north a bit, so further south might be more promising into south Wales.

Saturday, at present looks NW and windy, Long Mountain, Lawley and the like. Again might be good weather or might still be quite showery around here.

Sunday with rapidly building high pressure anything could happen, but more than likely the wind will be from an easterly direction (well within 90 degrees either way of East if that helps!)
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Re: Week beginning Monday, 6th May

Postby Dave Thomas » Fri May 10, 2019 6:52 am

Friday is going to be flyable, but subject to some pretty big clouds climbing to 15000ft, with large areas of slow moving rain, but it just depends how lucky a site is whether it gets spoilt - in between could be good or even very good. Direction gradually coming round from south to SW. Camlo might be an early option, then Shepherds Tump, Clatter. Late on in the day it might go west enough for the Mynd.

Saturday could still be a bit rainy, but fresh NW winds, so could be good flying

Sunday probably going SE or E direction, high pressure so difficult to call just yet, winds speeds not clear as might be too light to ridge soar.
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Re: Week beginning Monday, 6th May

Postby Dave Thomas » Sun May 12, 2019 6:19 am

Sunday, very light winds but thermic so go somewhere really high. Not a ridge soaring day anywhere that I can see.
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