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Week beginning Monday 20th July

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Week beginning Monday 20th July

Postby Dave Thomas » Mon Jul 20, 2020 7:39 am

Monday sees a lovely thermic day. Forecasts are generally showing a moderate NW wind around here, though dig deeper and there are strange variations from very light NNE to moderate westerly. The belt between England and Wales is shown to have a high likelihood of a lot of spreadout during the afternoon cutting down thermal strengths. Cloudbase up to 5000 or possibly even better later on. I think virtually any site might work today, both westerly and the NW sites, having looked at our web cams of course before venturing out, but there could be periods when it's a bit too windy. The air is drier and even better down into the south of England where cloudbase may exceed 7000ft.
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Re: Week beginning Monday 20th July

Postby Dave Thomas » Tue Jul 21, 2020 6:10 am

Tuesday has very large variances between forecasts specifically in our area so it will be difficult to call. What does seem clear is it will become quite cloudy with a lot of spreadout. Wind direction and speed varies between wsw veering west with just about ridge soarable speeds, to light NW or even NE. We are due be right in a high pressure area so not surprising about the varied wind direction forecasts. I think there might be a bit more wind in our far west sites but that may just be as the sea breeze comes across the cambrians late on. For site choice, as usual the mynd with the expectation of the first forecast coming good. Alternatively lawley or wrekin. Llandinam i think is our biggest top to bottom site, so gives some chance of thermals rolling up the hill properly. Not a great day for a really good chance of flying, its so unpredictable with these variations in forecasts.
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Re: Week beginning Monday 20th July

Postby Dave Thomas » Tue Jul 21, 2020 5:58 pm

No wind on the mynd this afternoon by the weather station and windsock, yet the clouds were forming out around Corndon and rolling in from the west. Yet at the same time the wind at Sarn and clatter was quite fresh westerly - but looks at this sky.

seaair.png
sea air encroachment all the way to almost the Mynd
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Re: Week beginning Monday 20th July

Postby Geoffm » Tue Jul 21, 2020 6:50 pm

Yes, it's interesting. Even now, 18:50 BST, the weather station is giving more or less zero. You would think maybe the station is faulty, except it isn't. And the wind speed is confirmed by the web cam views of the wind sock, both the static cam, and the time lapse, which are on different systems. And yet, at the same time, both Sarn and Clatter are giving 14/15 mph WNW. So close, but still not getting here.
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Re: Week beginning Monday 20th July

Postby Justin Davies » Tue Jul 21, 2020 8:21 pm

Yes really strange today. I was keeping an optimistic eye out for a decent day on the Mynd as there was a steady breeze at Churchstoke but, as mentioned, it looked almost a flat calm on the Mynd webcams.
I too thought maybe it was reading incorrect but the windsock was pretty much limp all day.

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Re: Week beginning Monday 20th July

Postby Dave Thomas » Wed Jul 22, 2020 7:09 am

Thank you for those extra confirming comments, very useful. Shows the sometimes critical nature of the micro climate effects, which is what i try to envisage with my thoughts for a day, just based on past experience of witnessing unexpected conditions.

Wednesday has an increasing SW to WSW wind over our whole area with a lowering cloudbas as the next front comes closer. Can't see much chance of flying our sites.

Thursday might have a chance before the rain arrives as a slightly less windy forecast.
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Re: Week beginning Monday 20th July

Postby Roy Dade » Thu Jul 23, 2020 1:00 pm

I found a couple of interesting articles online that talk about local effects like the Cheshire Gap, the Sc that builds over Snowdonia that we sometimes see in a NW -NNW plus the rain shadow we get in a W from the mountains of mid Wales drying the airmass.

https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/d ... 2/wea.2080

https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/d ... 2/wea.2149


Regards

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Re: Week beginning Monday 20th July

Postby Dave Thomas » Fri Jul 24, 2020 6:58 am

Lots of statistics from those articles that Roy found. What it highlights to me is how critical and local the climate can be between flying sites in our area and the welsh & midlands region.

Friday sees a cloudy day with wind increasing during the day from the south west. I think as the day warms up the air will mix and the low level wind which is currently west at the Mynd will back to be pretty much south west and make it difficult or impossible there, probably blown out anyway by mid afternoon. So either go early to the mynd or chose a sw site. Clatter is no good unless properly sw. Shepherds tump in my experience can go from nicely launchable to blown out very easily due to the hill profile. Camlo is shallow in a sw but you can launch lower down if slightly windy, but beware the forest behind in case too windy.
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Re: Week beginning Monday 20th July

Postby Geoffm » Fri Jul 24, 2020 7:53 am

The welcome page of the website still says Clatter is closed. There is no subsequent update on that page to say it is open.
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