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Week beginning Monday 30 December

PostPosted: Sun Dec 29, 2019 10:00 pm
by Roy Dade
The week kicks off still influenced by high pressure with a warm stable flow from the tropics. This breaks down mid week with a ridge of high pressure building next weekend bring more cold unstable air from the north.

Monday winds SSW - SW light to moderate, dry and sunny. Possibly getting gusty and stronger pm. Possibly the Mynd, Camlo, Tump Clatter day, a check the webcam and observations day to see how it shapes up?

Tuesday - Winds veer E moderate possibly gusty pm, more cloud around maybe Corndon will be worth a look see.

Wednesday - winds veer S, fairly light, looks promising for New Years Day, maybe Wrekin or a Gyrn Day.

Thursday and Friday possibly too strong but a ridge building in next weekend, getting cooler though with a polar airmass, potentially good on Saturday with a N-NW wind direction.

Re: Week beginning Monday 30 December

PostPosted: Mon Dec 30, 2019 5:55 pm
by Roy Dade
Mynd was flyable for periods today, winds not quite as strong as forecast judging by the weather station read out and they did swing more WNW towards sunset. Mark, Alan and Glyn there I think.

Tuesday 31st, high pressure still in charge with a warm front sinking slowly southwards. Winds ENE veering E with flyable speeds. Sky overcast with a low base, hill tops may be in clag, possibly fog first thing. As always see how the day shapes up. Air at the surface 5-6 degrees C so a bit nippy too. Maybe Corndon or the Wrekin SE enough?

Looking ahead to Wednesday 1st winds are forecast light S-SSW with some sun about, maybe a Gyrn day?

Re: Week beginning Monday 30 December

PostPosted: Tue Dec 31, 2019 7:42 pm
by Roy Dade
Wednesday 1 Jan 20 and high pressure still dominating with a weak low filling to the S of the UK. Winds forecast light to moderate SSE early on veering SSW, with winds more SW - W as you get higher. It’s forecast to be blue and cloudless and pretty stable with that inversion still present. My guess is that a good steep slope with the wind directly on should be soarable so choices locally are Clatter further afield Shepherds Tump. The Gyrn may work too if the wind stays S and you can get to the bowl which takes a SSW. With luck the Mynd may work as the upper winds are a tad more W, especially with the sun on it later?

Thursday and Friday looking blown out but Saturday afternoon may come good with a NW wind and less stable conditions.

Happy New Year

Regards

Roy

Re: Week beginning Monday 30 December

PostPosted: Wed Jan 01, 2020 7:44 pm
by Roy Dade
Tom and Ben flew at the Mynd this morning, the winds were fairly close to the forecasts but it was more grey that blue for sure!

For Thur 2 Jan we’ve got a low pressure system moving in from the west bringing stronger winds so it’s looking blown out.

For the rest of the week a ridge is forecast to build however a deep low over Iceland is likely to push up wind speeds and a warm sector will bring fairly moist air. There is a chance on Friday of post cold frontal conditions briefly giving us some more buoyant air however weak sun and cloud might bugger it up?

As always timing can change everything so I’ll update tomorrow.

Re: Week beginning Monday 30 December

PostPosted: Thu Jan 02, 2020 10:55 am
by Dave Thomas
Friday is a possibility for HG at the Mynd, but I think probably too much for PG's. If by any chance it's got a decent amount of NW in the direction then Long Mountain could be useable.

Saturday looking good for the Mynd at this moment for HG and PG, but do please take head of the avoidance request for the south end (Black Knoll) for shooting on that day. Our area is looking like the most promising of anywhere to be flyable with highest cloudbase - the lapse rate charts look like proper ones should, just far too little sunshine to get any decent thermals just yet.

Re: Week beginning Monday 30 December

PostPosted: Fri Jan 03, 2020 8:19 am
by Graeme Baird
Correction - Tom and Ben flew at the Wrekin. The wind on NYD was SE, so not possible to fly at the Mynd with that wind direction.

Re: Week beginning Monday 30 December

PostPosted: Fri Jan 03, 2020 10:02 am
by Dave Thomas
Forecasts for this weekend are now not looking as promising. In fact maybe today is as good as it gets. The wind today might reduce enough during the day, certainly for HG's on the Mynd I think. The wind direction varies locally quite a bit so there's a chance long mountain might be suitable for PG's even if fairly windy - some forecasts have it being generally backing west during the day, others say staying NW or even very locally NNW.

Weekend similar but cloudier and staying windy

Re: Week beginning Monday 30 December

PostPosted: Fri Jan 03, 2020 12:04 pm
by Roy Dade
“Re: Week beginning Monday 30 December
Post by Graeme Baird » Fri Jan 03, 2020 7:19 am

Correction - Tom and Ben flew at the Wrekin. The wind on NYD was SE, so not possible to fly at the Mynd with that wind direction.”

Thanks Graeme, having done the forecast I was watching the observations and it did go SW at the Mynd for a while albeit in the afternoon. Even so it never cleared up.

Just a comment but feedback really helps whoever is doing a forecast, please use the site reports Telegram Group or post here.

Regards

Roy

Re: Week beginning Monday 30 December

PostPosted: Sat Jan 04, 2020 9:29 am
by Dave Thomas
Saturdays forecast for today has improved on some forecasts with the wind reducing a little during the day and being pretty well west backing WSW late on. However other forecasts such as RASP say it's too windy all day with a strong wind gradient. What RASP does show though is that what I presume is wave effect bands of high and low wind speeds at low level, so if the Mynd is in the right spot it might be ok after all.