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Week beginning Monday, 21st October

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Week beginning Monday, 21st October

Postby Geoffm » Sun Oct 20, 2019 5:30 pm

Clocks go back on Saturday. It's almost winter. Having said that, the weather's not too bad, at least for the first part of the week, and there are flyable days. Cold though, mostly in single figures.

Monday: northerlies. Probably strong for PGs, so Long Mountain. Or maybe Sarn if not too strong. Llangollen could be ok for hangies. But also, the wind is dropping during the day, so for PGs, it's possible Llangollen, for example could be ok late afternoon.

Tuesday: SW, not too strong. So Clatter, maybe Camlo. Should be dry.

Wednesday: south, but increasing cloud throughout the day. Gyrn should be on, locally.

Thursday: going more westerly again. SW, or west - hard to say at the moment.

Friday: a front arrives, strong winds and rain.

Weekend: not that promising, wind and rain still. Maybe a slight chance on Saturday.
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Re: Week beginning Monday, 21st October

Postby Dave Thomas » Mon Oct 21, 2019 6:55 am

For Monday some forecasts have moderated their wind strengths in our area. Direction is between N and NNE with a few local variations and a slight tendency during the day as the wind speeds drop to go just West of North. It's a bit of a toss up which site is most likely to be the most reliable to launch and soar and could be time dependent too. Maybe Long Mountain and Sarn earliest in the day, but later on Corndon, Wrekin, Llangollen, Clunbury. It's entirely possible that the wind speeds drop pretty quickly and it's not even soarable by mid afternoon as there is a variation from west to east - lower speeds in the west, and it just depends where that division lies.


Tuesday still as Geoff suggested, and speeds seem to have a=increased a bit to more soarable speeds.
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Re: Week beginning Monday, 21st October

Postby Dave Thomas » Tue Oct 22, 2019 6:16 am

Monday saw ridge soaring and thermalling at Long Mountain and ridge soaring at Hay bluff, haven't heard about elsewhere but there probably was.
Tuesday is dry and SW wind's gradually picking up to hopefully nicely soarable speeds by lunchtime. There does look like a bit of a tendency for it to go WSW in Wales, so I'm a bit dubious about Clatter as it does not work at all well if west of SW. Shepherds Tump may be a better bet as the bowl will take a bit of west in the wind quite well. Mostly overcast in Wales but cloudbase about 3000ft at best.

Wednesday S to SSE but might be a bit windy.
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Re: Week beginning Monday, 21st October

Postby Dave Thomas » Tue Oct 22, 2019 7:42 pm

Today I think turned out rather too windy and turbulent?

Wednesday due to be windy or not, but where it's not is most likely related to the approaching front's. There's a warm one coming from the SE direction and a cold one coming from the west - not sure which if either of them get to us, looks like we're being squeezed between them. Might not be a proper description but maybe the air can't make it's mind up so just sits where it is until a front arrives!

Somewhere might be flyable, just not sure where - direction probably southerly-ish

Sunday promising NW winds.
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Re: Week beginning Monday, 21st October

Postby Geoffm » Wed Oct 23, 2019 6:36 pm

I think it'll be on the Mynd, Thursday. Showers are likely though, but dying off in the afternoon. Probably top end for PGs.

Actually then, not a great day.

Friday and Saturday are going to be very wet.

Sunday might be ok for both, on the Mynd, though possibly a more northerly site, not clear yet. But anyway, lighter winds, dry.
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Re: Week beginning Monday, 21st October

Postby Dave Thomas » Fri Oct 25, 2019 7:57 am

Sunday looking good at this moment, with our area being the best in the UK. Wind direction NW to NNW so probably not on the Mynd and veering NE the further south and east you are from north Wales. Decent cloudbase too.
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Re: Week beginning Monday, 21st October

Postby Dave Thomas » Sat Oct 26, 2019 6:12 pm

Sunday still looking nice weather, but we are on the border between far too windy for PG's (Peak district) and just nice which is probably south Wales. Wind direction starts off pretty well West but veers far more NW later on. Forecasts vary a bit about cloudbase/inversion as it might be mostly blue, somewhere between 2500ft and 4000ft. The thermic day is obviously very short, but it should be nicely thermic for the time of year.
For HG's The mynd might work especially early on and even later, but Lawley or Llangollen are far more likely as better launching and soaring sites. Alternatively Hay Bluff for SEWHGPG club members.
For PG's, again Long Mynd early on but it might get too far to the North by lunchtime to be nice, so maybe decamp to Lawley, Lan Fawr, Clunbury or better still go further west and south west. Llandinam maybe though it is a big hill, or Hay Bluff. Later on if it does go properly NW then Long Mountain if it's windy, which it is supposed to become.

Will check again first thing tomorrow to see what's changed.
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Re: Week beginning Monday, 21st October

Postby Dave Thomas » Sun Oct 27, 2019 7:51 am

Forecasts have become more varied now, especially relating to the wind direction and speed, so the suggestions as to sites could be quite wide of the mark.

Therefore it depends just what does happen in the next few hours. It might remain pretty well West or WNW most of the day and too strong for PG's on the Mynd, or it might go NW by lunchtime and by on at Long Mountain for PG's. Same suggestions for HG's as last night for sites to try. The thermic forecast has reduced quite a bit but we are still pretty much near the best air with cloudbase likely to be 3500ft or so.

Elsewhere holds much more reliable promise for PG's, to the south and south west of us where it is forecast to become a lot more NW to even northerly and much less wind and maybe more blue sky. Options, Llandinam, Selsley, 100 house, Hay Bluff, Rhigos
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Re: Week beginning Monday, 21st October

Postby Geoffm » Sun Oct 27, 2019 6:29 pm

Sunday was on the Mynd all day, flyable for both hg and pg. And a far better day than I expected, with surprisingly strong thermals and good streets. There was frost last night, and cold air, and still lots of surface water from the floods, but I guess the sun was still relatively strong.
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