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Week beginning Monday, 30th September

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Week beginning Monday, 30th September

Postby Geoffm » Sun Sep 29, 2019 6:54 pm

A poor week, certainly at the start. One or two days possible.

Monday: heavy rain, starting sometime from lunch time onwards.

Tuesday: more rain and possible thunderstorms.

Wednesday: the most likely day at the moment. Somewhere between WNW and north, should be flyable strengths too. And dry. We'll be clearer about the site nearer the day.

Thursday: southerly, maybe SW, and windy. If it drops, there might be possibilities at one of our sites.

Friday: direction somewhere between south and west at the moment.

Weekend: looks too windy at the moment, though might be a bit lighter, and westerly, on the Sunday.
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Re: Week beginning Monday, 30th September

Postby Dave Thomas » Tue Oct 01, 2019 9:34 am

I'm confused by the most recent rasp for Wednesday. Looking at the 'soundings' Bradwell and downwind look best for soaring and XC although might be a bit too windy, yet even for sailplane star forecast is zero, yet is ok in Wales. However the soundings are really poor in Wales and that matches everything other than the star forecast. Just does not all seem right to me. For instance RASP says it's going east at low level in our area, yet BBC say West going NW during the day and a reasonable speed but might be a bit strong in the afternoon.

Basically I have very little confidence in anything yet other than the statement that it is most likely our best chance for a long while.
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Re: Week beginning Monday, 30th September

Postby Dave Thomas » Wed Oct 02, 2019 8:19 am

Marginally more clarity for today now. However RASP has a long thin line of low cloud and showers NNW - SSE direction and might possibly cover the Mynd and east of it, though other forecasts don't seem to show that at all. There is also a discrepancy between RASP's wind direction and all other forecasts. RASP says west all day and very light, while the rest say it's veering NW during the day and getting stronger. Still, it's certainly looking good enough to get out if you possibly can - Mynd, Lawley or long Mountain if it gets a bit windy and NW. Maybe go slightly further west or south to reduce the chance of RASP being right about the band of rain - Llandinam, Lan Fawr or Clunbury
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Re: Week beginning Monday, 30th September

Postby Dave Thomas » Thu Oct 03, 2019 11:12 am

Probably a bit late now unless you are local, but the rainy front hasn't quite arrived yet. Wind mostly SE and due to increase and rain later, but looks good for soaring - Wrekin at present I think though I'm not on top to be able to confirm. No thermals.

Yesterday, people flew a number of our sites, plus in south Wales and Avon area and wessex club sites where it was nicely thermic. Peaks were quite rough and windy but some people flew.
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Re: Week beginning Monday, 30th September

Postby Dave Thomas » Fri Oct 04, 2019 4:21 pm

Friday hasn't been anywhere near any forecasts - it's supposed to be grey murky and north easterly but it's post frontal, sunny and a light westerly on the Mynd. Oh well, I'm glad I didn't suggest anything as I'd have been very wrong. Tomorrow looks like it's supposed to be moderate SE with base above the hills, but who knows what it will be like. Sunday still looking rubbish.
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Re: Week beginning Monday, 30th September

Postby Geoffm » Sat Oct 05, 2019 7:41 am

Yes, yesterday wasn't really as forecast. It was briefly flyable on the Mynd I think, then later in the afternoon it went east.

Today, Saturday, if you're desperate, could could give Corndon a go in the SE winds. Very cloudy, but dry until late afternoon early evening. And Sunday, it's WNW. Windy, but could be ok for hangies on the Mynd.
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