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Week beginning Monday, 16th September

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Week beginning Monday, 16th September

Postby Geoffm » Sun Sep 15, 2019 6:21 pm

A week with some possibilities.

Monday: There's a front going through Sunday night which might make it a bit damp and cloudy Monday morning. But it clears up later in the day and goes northerly. It could be strong enough for Long Mountain. Maybe Sarn.

Tuesday: sunny, NNW. Should be a bit thermic. A bit breezy. Llangollen should be good for hangies, but probably top end for PGs. More locally, Sarn, or Long Mountain.

Wednesday: much lighter, NNW. Sunny again. Maybe the Wrekin would be a good choice.

Thursday: light SE. Again, the Wrekin. Or maybe the Malverns. Corndon will be on, but possible too light there for soaring.

Friday: stronger SE/ESE. Corndon would be worth a try.

Weekend: much stronger winds.

Incidentally, the web cam at Llangollen is at http://www.solarcam.fr/Llangollen/
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Re: Week beginning Monday, 16th September

Postby Geoffm » Mon Sep 16, 2019 10:30 pm

I'd still say Llangollen for hangies on Tuesday, Long Mountain or Sarn for PGs. Or Lord's Seat in the Peaks, where, for once, it's forecast to be lighter.

Wednesday is still really light, more or less nil wind round here. So the Wrekin could be ok. However, in the Peaks, there's a nice westerly, so I'd expect to see some XCs from Bradwell.
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Re: Week beginning Monday, 16th September

Postby Dave Thomas » Tue Sep 17, 2019 6:26 am

Morning update for Tuesday, and agree with Geoff's suggestion as it's due to be fairly breezy with better air towards the Midlands rather than Wales. Some forecasts say Blue skies all day whilst others have quite a lot of cloud coming down from North Wales into our area. cloudbase I think 3500 or a bit more.

Wednesday, forecasts vary massively other than all saying pretty light winds, could be briefly westerly or more likely mostly some other direction - and if you go somewhere else not far away expected to be a completely different direction, maybe by tomorrow things will have stabilised - nice and sunny though.
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Re: Week beginning Monday, 16th September

Postby Geoffm » Tue Sep 17, 2019 9:12 pm

People did fly today at both Sarn and Long Mountain, though Sarn was too windy early on. Don't know if any hangies flew at Llangollen. Some reasonable XCs done in the Peaks, as usual. But that's at least partly a reflection of the larger numbers of pilots, and the XC culture there in the club.

Wednesday here is still really light winds. If you can't travel far, try the Wrekin, or maybe somewhere in Snowdonia (which actually can be a long way, depending on where you live!). If you can, go to Bradwell in the Peaks, which is by far the best option.
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Re: Week beginning Monday, 16th September

Postby Dave Thomas » Wed Sep 18, 2019 5:47 pm

Thursday looking very poor for flying due to low wind speeds and a very low inversion level. Friday much stronger winds, probably SE or E direction, may possibly be too windy for PG's, but looks like the best chance for some ridge soaring for a while as Saturday is currently due to be even stronger - hopefully that may change. Sunday possibly stormy.
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Re: Week beginning Monday, 16th September

Postby Dave Thomas » Thu Sep 19, 2019 7:31 am

Thursday, though poor due to low winds, might be marginally better than Friday for the chance of getting some blue thermals to 3000ft as the inversion gets lower. Probably East or variable, Corndon our only local option. Malverns or peak district maybe better.

Friday SE but getting a lot stronger during the day, maybe Wrekin early on.
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Re: Week beginning Monday, 16th September

Postby Dave Thomas » Fri Sep 20, 2019 6:32 am

Thursday saw a few people flying in south wales and malverns, but very limited with the inversion at 3000ft. Haven't seen any reports from around here.
Friday is due to become windier as the day goes on, with inversion never getting much above 2000ft. Direction varies between SE and ESE. Best chance of flying will be the Peak district where the winds are due to remain lighter all day.

Here, there may be a chance at The Wrekin, but I think it will be blown out quite quickly and it's rarely the nicest soaring conditions when capped by an inversion close to hilltop as the wind tends to venturi across the top and make it too windy on launch. Corndon if anywhere would be a better place to launch as it's not a spine back and copes with wind much better. I have no experience of the Gyrn on a windy day but would be hesitant to go there due to the topology.

Saturday, Windier with Corndon being the only place possible with even the Malverns blown out except for HG's.
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Re: Week beginning Monday, 16th September

Postby Dave Thomas » Fri Sep 20, 2019 9:24 am

Footnote to my comment about the venturi effect and hills with a low inversion level. The wind on the mynd is already pretty well howling, far beyond the forecast wind speeds, yet very light at normal ground level. But the camera's show that it's very close to the inversion level and my theory is that the air is squeezing between the hill and the inversion cap. Will be interesting to see what the wind does during the day - will it actually get stronger on top of the Mynd or reduce a little despite the general wind due to increase a great deal by this afternoon.
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Re: Week beginning Monday, 16th September

Postby Dave Thomas » Sat Sep 21, 2019 7:47 am

My comment yesterday, the wind on the Mynd didn't get stronger, yet the ground wind elsewhere did during the day. People flew Castlemorton Common at the Malverns in the morning, though windy and turbulent I hear.

Today is forecast to be slightly stronger than yesterday, however RASP offers a glimmer of hope where all along the Welsh border counties have lighter winds than elsewhere. Therefore, Castlemorton just might be flyable - it's a spineback with trees behind though. Maybe Corndon where it's likely to be wave influenced quite a lot so could be very variable in what the apparent wind is.

Sunday too much chance of rain/thunder to bother suggesting anything.

Next week looks rubbish too, there may be the odd chance of something but not looking good at all.
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Re: Week beginning Monday, 16th September

Postby Graeme Baird » Sat Sep 21, 2019 1:24 pm

Just returned home from 2 days at Barmouth. It was gale force SE for most of the time, but a report from the Llyn Peninsula said no wind whatsoever. Very odd!
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