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Week beginning Monday, 29th April

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Week beginning Monday, 29th April

Postby Geoffm » Sun Apr 28, 2019 7:21 pm

A mixed week ahead. Changing directions, some sun, some rain.

Monday: starting off east, going south during the day. Corndon, or the Wrekin should work. We are on the edge of the thermal activity, but should be ok.

Tuesday: south all day, it should be dry, but there is a front coming in so depends on timing. The Gyrn, maybe Camlo, definitely Rushup in the Peaks.

Wednesday: at he moment, a write off, with rain showers much of the day.

Thursday: probably better than Wednesday, WNW or NW.

Friday: NW, dry, but quite windy. Probably Long Mountain for PGs, maybe Llangollen for hang gliders.

Weekend: dry, but unclear about the wind direction at the moment.
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Re: Week beginning Monday, 29th April

Postby Dave Thomas » Sun Apr 28, 2019 8:57 pm

Additional detail for Monday, there may well be some large cumulus building to 10000ft plus and then spreading out and killing the thermals and maybe changing the wind direction and speed for a while, so conditions could be quite variable. Further east into England looks best so we may not be in the most thermic area as Geoff has pointed out.
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Re: Week beginning Monday, 29th April

Postby Dave Thomas » Mon Apr 29, 2019 6:23 am

Monday, there is a raining front to our west and south west, but it is gradually decaying and moving away slightly. forecasts indicate it not being very good in our area until quite late on, however the webcams show the sky as being generally quite clear already, however a lot of cloud is due to build up later. By the time RASP suggests it will become good in mid afternoon the winds are due to be pretty well SE and air is still better further east, so Wrekin seems like the best bet around here. though Corndon and Gyrn probably ok for soaring. Further afield, Peak district looks good, don't know the sites but the air is good around there. Malverns are on the edge of the best air and with winds forecast to be between barely soarable and just about right, Pandy is due to still be in poor cloudy air all day.
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Re: Week beginning Monday, 29th April

Postby Geoffm » Mon Apr 29, 2019 9:58 pm

We were right about the sites today, with good flying at both the Wrekin and Corndon, according to FB reports. Tuesday looks a lot less thermic, more cloud with the approach of the front which will bring rain on Wednesday. South. The Gyrn, Rushup in the Peaks.
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Re: Week beginning Monday, 29th April

Postby Dave Thomas » Tue Apr 30, 2019 6:33 am

Tuesday, there's a slight issue with our area according to RASP, where the area around the Mynd is centred on a dead area for a reason I can't see from looking at synoptic charts. However the direction is due to be probably SSE for a while gradually going South or possibly SSW. Some forecasts say it might be too windy for Wrekin, but Rasp suggests ok. Alternatively Corndon or Camlo - and Camlo is on the west side of the poor area and into the higher cloudbase over the Cambrians so may well be the best bet in our patch with cloudbase to 5500ft whereas maybe 2000ft lower slightly further east.
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Re: Week beginning Monday, 29th April

Postby Geoffm » Tue Apr 30, 2019 7:16 pm

Well, Dave was right, Camlo certainly worked apparently, there were quite a few gliders there, according to an FB post from Mark L.

Wednesday still looking poor, very showery. Though it is westerly.
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Re: Week beginning Monday, 29th April

Postby Matt Bayliss » Wed May 01, 2019 10:32 am

Geoffm wrote:Wednesday still looking poor, very showery. Though it is westerly.


haha, some consolation! :D :D

Matt

p.s. After a bit of a flying hiatus, I was amazed and pleasantly surprised to see you guys still keeping this up and it helped me make the go decision and get back into it - hats off to you :)
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Re: Week beginning Monday, 29th April

Postby Geoffm » Wed May 01, 2019 11:10 am

Thanks Matt, much appreciated! I do wonder sometimes if it is worth it. So nice to get feedback.
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Re: Week beginning Monday, 29th April

Postby Glyn Jones » Wed May 01, 2019 8:01 pm

I always use this as my look at the week ahead, great and usually very accurate, please keep it going
:D
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Re: Week beginning Monday, 29th April

Postby Jason Smith » Thu May 02, 2019 10:21 pm

Dear Mr Weather guru:- some great rasp forecasts for the weekend, any thoughts on wind strength and hence sites.
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Re: Week beginning Monday, 29th April

Postby Dave Thomas » Fri May 03, 2019 7:43 am

Saturday, fabulous high cloudbase and strong thermic conditions, however the wind is due to be north and blown out for PG's I think even for Long Mountain. The Met office synoptic charts show isobars pretty close together as well, so all forecasts at present say the same. For HG's I'd guess Corndon or Sarn should be launchable, though I can't see any reason a HG could not launch from Long Mountain other than the lack of official bottom landing field - it has been done before for XC.

Sunday, conditions our side of the UK not as good, but going more westerly, winds still might be on the high side

Monday looks a better bet for the Mynd for HG and PG
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Re: Week beginning Monday, 29th April

Postby Dave Thomas » Sat May 04, 2019 7:39 am

Saturday still looks blown out for PG's and quite possibly most HG's as well, I've looked through all the forecasts and actuals I can, and everything is in agreement and has been for a couple of days that it's too windy to be safe or even possible for us.

Sunday however has improved for our area, though may well get spoilt in places by rain from time to time. Either Mynd or one of our NW sites look good with suitable winds for most people, but it will be quite gusty.

Monday could be good too.
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Re: Week beginning Monday, 29th April

Postby Geoffm » Sat May 04, 2019 6:35 pm

I think it's going to be too northerly for the Mynd tomorrow, Sunday. It is starting off westerly early on, but rapidly going NW, and then NNW. Much lighter winds than today, and thermic. The Lawley; Llangollen; Wrekin; Sarn; maybe Long Mountain when it gets more northerly, if it's strong enough for there (which it probably will be given it's thermic too). In the right place, should be a good day for both soaring and XC. There's plenty of choices in this direction.
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Re: Week beginning Monday, 29th April

Postby Dave Thomas » Sun May 05, 2019 8:06 am

Forecasts have changed a bit overnight with it being more westerly, but maybe a bit more NW into North Wales. Some forecasts have it being quite light winds, others on the breezy side this afternoon. My choices if i was out which im not sadly, would be llandinam or long mynd., Both good for any level of pilot for ridge soaring or XC starting points. Sea air is due to come in and spoil norh wales so llangollen might not be the best place.
Other areas in the UK, virtually everywhere looks good though.
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Re: Week beginning Monday, 29th April

Postby Geoffm » Sun May 05, 2019 5:19 pm

Dave was right, and it stayed westerly - even with some south in it - till about 3.30 or so. So flyable on the Mynd till then. Sometimes the winds did pick up, but there were times when it was easy anough to launch. Lots getting to cloudbase, and some went XC, maybe 30 km or so - don't know if anyone went further.

It was easily hang glidable too, though there were only two there.

So actually, not a bad day.
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