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Week beginning Monday 25th March

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Week beginning Monday 25th March

Postby Dave Thomas » Sun Mar 24, 2019 9:03 am

Monday is due to have wind from the north and a decent cloudbase 4000ft with the best air over the Cambrians, but forecasts vary between really quite light and up to as windy as Sunday is due to be, so not sure of site choice yet.


Tuesday due to be Long Mynd soarable with reasonable air, then for the rest of the week, the winds seem to be reasonably light but forecasts differ greatly in from what direction they come, so flyable by the look of it, somewhere on at least one of our sites every day.
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Re: Week beginning Monday 25th March

Postby Dave Thomas » Mon Mar 25, 2019 7:47 am

Monday, forecasts still vary regarding wind speed, with RASP being more optimistic about it being light enough for PG's. There looks like a trend towards lighter winds this afternoon though, so if blown out at lunchtime, it looks like it won't be all day. Cloudbase - well there is due to be one for the first part of the thermal day but will go blue, is due to be around 4000ft - probably higher over drier high ground (Cambrians) Wind direction, forecasts are varying just a bit between NNW and NNE, however it's supposed to be North at present and all of our weather stations have it NW at present, so that adds to the discrepancy between actual and forecast. I'm guessing that this is due to a laminar airflow and the wind veers with height quite a bit.


Site choice - pretty critical variation between NNW and NNE. If it's N or NNW then Long Mountain I think unless the winds drop a lot. If it's off to the east even a bit then I'd say Corndon or Sarn (Sarn to ridge soar while there's a decent wind).

Other options - 100 house when the wind reduces enough and not due to go blue down that way, Leckhampton (no bottom landing so an XC site only). Peak district if light enough winds, borderline I would say.
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Re: Week beginning Monday 25th March

Postby Dave Thomas » Tue Mar 26, 2019 7:33 am

Monday saw Long Mountain vary between too windy, no wind at all and then just right. I heard that Sarn was too light but not sure if it stayed that way.

Tuesday, certainly early on Long Mynd looks on, but some forecasts say it will get a bit too windy and NW direction to be ideal in the afternoon. Maybe decamp and try Lawley lower launch if that happens. Probably going blue sky in the afternoon and base/inversion level only 3000ft, but should be nicely thermic. Elsehere, South Wales and to the east of it looks to have a much higher cloudbase, so other options might include Frocester or Malverns (might be blown out at Malverns as spineback ridge)
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Re: Week beginning Monday 25th March

Postby Dave Thomas » Wed Mar 27, 2019 12:42 am

Wednesday looks like being a lovely Long Mynd day. Lapse charts don't show cloudbase as being very high, but Tuesday turned out far higher than forecast. Another option will be Llandinam.

Ditto for Thursday
Ditto for Friday
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Re: Week beginning Monday 25th March

Postby Dave Thomas » Thu Mar 28, 2019 7:52 am

Thursday is now not looking anywhere near as good as Wednesday was for many. Forecasts vary a little, but basically there is due to be a bit of a westerly wind in west Wales, but probably very little at the Mynd and if there is it might be off to the south. Pretty sunny with inversion at about 3000ft. I can't see anywhere else being reliably much better than here, probably will be, but there will be a lot of luck involved in being at the right place.

Friday, sort of similar but maybe a bit more wind from the South West.
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Re: Week beginning Monday 25th March

Postby Dave Thomas » Fri Mar 29, 2019 9:22 am

Friday, now looking not great really - quite a light wind from the south west and despite being sunny the inversion level is quite low. There is a chance it may come onto the Mynd enough to scratch soar, but the forecast was better yesterday but it never happened.

Saturday has somewhere between very light to no wind, up to nicely soarable NW, so worth checking the web cams and weather stations, with inversion level higher than Friday. Our area probably blue, but cumulus clouds elsewhere so that could easily change.

Sunday has a decent Easterly wind with the best air further north and especially northern England and Scotland. Here Corndon and Penyclodiau East look promising, Malverns and Pandy currently beyond the southerly edge of the good air and possibly blown out.
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Re: Week beginning Monday 25th March

Postby Dave Thomas » Sun Mar 31, 2019 7:56 am

Sunday blown out here. Drive to Scotland.
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