View active topics

(LMSC members can login to see more options)

Week beginning Monday 7th January

We are re-structuring the forums, so that all topics will appear here, rather than being split up into the various different areas. The advantage of this is that it will be easier to navigate; and topics with the most recent posts will appear at the top of the list.

Week beginning Monday 7th January

Postby Dave Thomas » Sun Jan 06, 2019 9:39 pm

Looks rather windy until Wednesday, but at this moment, then and Thursday, looking pretty promising with nice clear post cold frontal northerly air. Then it gets windy again.


The whole week is West to North winds if the current forecasts remain.
Dave Thomas
 
Posts: 1692
Joined: Thu May 02, 2013 12:45 pm

Re: Week beginning Monday 7th January

Postby Dave Thomas » Tue Jan 08, 2019 11:26 am

Geoff and I have just been musing over the weather stations apparently under-reading today, to the extent that it looks flyable. However, having watched the time lapse cameras, the satellite pictures, Rasp lapse charts, it's clear that wave is very much in evidence, however with wind direction changing by more than 90 degrees with height, that wave is likely to be very broken and likely to create most unpleasant conditions.


Wednesday looks quite flyable, for the time of year a nice lapse rate with winds somewhere between NNW and NNE and windy but not blown out I think. Likely sites - Sarn, Long Mountain, 100 house, Leckhampton.


Thursday, there's a warm front coming through so what it's like depends on timing, but likely to be light to moderate Westerly.
Dave Thomas
 
Posts: 1692
Joined: Thu May 02, 2013 12:45 pm

Re: Week beginning Monday 7th January

Postby Dave Thomas » Wed Jan 09, 2019 7:59 am

Wednesday, I'm struggling to find the ideal launch ridge soaring site. Almost all of the forecasts are similar, and the upper winds are largely due to be north or just slightly to the west of north, but ground level winds may go as far round as NE. The inversion level is due to be around 2000 - 2500 ft but quite sunny with limited cloud, however all around North Wales stretching as far as Sarn the winds are due to drop to virtually nothing later in the day, while to the east of our area the winds may be too strong for PG's to launch. Initially I thought Sarn, but it is notorious for needing more wind than you'd expect to make it soarable, Corndon may be a good option, but even on the north face, ridge soaring is quite limited. I don't think Long Mountain is going to be windy enough and may get affected if the lower more easterly wind around there occurs. The Wrekin in fact might be ok, as it is soarable when fairly north once you've managed to launch as it's slightly in the lee of the trees, and is nearer to the forecast stronger winds.

Elsewhere, Leckhampton might be blown out, similarly Blorenge. 100 house is on the boundary of the forecast lighter winds so might be ok, but my limited experience of the hill, finding lower down launches out of the venturi if it's windy might be difficult.
Dave Thomas
 
Posts: 1692
Joined: Thu May 02, 2013 12:45 pm

Re: Week beginning Monday 7th January

Postby Dave Thomas » Wed Jan 09, 2019 8:25 am

Actually just been thinking some more, Lawley or Clunbury might be better options thought it all depends on the easterly component in the lower winds. Still, it's a very difficult one to call, things will be clearer in 8 hours time, but it will be too late by then!
Dave Thomas
 
Posts: 1692
Joined: Thu May 02, 2013 12:45 pm

Re: Week beginning Monday 7th January

Postby Dave Thomas » Thu Jan 10, 2019 7:46 am

Yesterdau, people went to Llangollen and Lawley, they soared ok at Lawley despite the wind being quite northerly but haven't heard about Sarn - I couldn't see any wings on the webcam images.

Today, lapse charts indicate it will get clagged in eventually as the warm front moves in, due to be over us in the middle of the day. Also though the lower winds are forecast as westerly the upper winds at a could of thousand feet are due to be quite northerly again. Having said that it might be worth going out to fly, mynd probably if the webcams show it being clear there, and more especially upwind cameras, warm fronts move slowly so if it's clear there the Mynd, maybe lawley should be clear for a while. getting windier during the day, too light to start with and just right later, but all depends on just what the front brings in with low cloud.


Friday NW and stronger but may be a grubby low cloud damp day.
Dave Thomas
 
Posts: 1692
Joined: Thu May 02, 2013 12:45 pm

Re: Week beginning Monday 7th January

Postby Dave Thomas » Thu Jan 10, 2019 10:26 am

David McKenzie reported really nice conditions at the Wrekin on Wednesday despite it being off to the north as forecast.
Dave Thomas
 
Posts: 1692
Joined: Thu May 02, 2013 12:45 pm

Re: Week beginning Monday 7th January

Postby Dave Thomas » Fri Jan 11, 2019 9:13 am

Friday, last chance this week as due to be windy at the weekend. Windier than Wednesday but roughly the same direction. Not much sun about but it is due to warm up slightly which hopefully will clear the hills of cloud. Direction low down WNW - NW but the upper winds more northerly. My best guess for our area is Long Mountain for PG's as there's a reasonable chance of other sites being blown out - Lawleys not too bad as you can at least launch from the lower northern end. If the wind does firm up as NNW rather than NW, then Sarn might be ok as it needs a good blow to make it work well.
Dave Thomas
 
Posts: 1692
Joined: Thu May 02, 2013 12:45 pm

Re: Week beginning Monday 7th January

Postby Dave Thomas » Sat Jan 12, 2019 9:02 am

Did anyone fly on Friday, the webcams showed it did clear in the afternoon and not as windy as it could have been?

Weekend, only chance and it's not much of one will be the west Wales coast today, on dunes and possibly with mini wings, might rain later. Tomorrow looks very windy and wet.
Dave Thomas
 
Posts: 1692
Joined: Thu May 02, 2013 12:45 pm


Return to All topics



Please note: forum postings represent the views of the individuals, not of the LMSC. Posts which insult or libel others will be deleted.
cron