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Week beginning Monday, 22nd October

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Week beginning Monday, 22nd October

Postby Geoffm » Sun Oct 21, 2018 3:18 pm

Should be some flyable days in the coming week, though some days are likely to be blown out. No significant rain forecast.

Monday: basically NNW. Sarn, Llangollen, Long Mountain. If it is too strong at Llangollen for PGs, and it could be, then Long Mountain is the best option. Sarn could work too. Probably too strong for the Lawley.

Tuesday: west but probably blown out, even for hangies.

Wednesday: NW. but lighter than yesterday, ok for PGs. Lawley, maybe Llangollen.

Thursday: light westerlies. If not too light, could be good on the Mynd for PGs.

Friday onwards: seems blown out at the moment.
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Re: Week beginning Monday, 22nd October

Postby Dave Thomas » Mon Oct 22, 2018 6:51 am

This mornings forecasts show a distinct increase in wind speed between North and South Wales. the winds are curving around from NNW in North Wales to NNE in the south. There is a fair amount of doubt about how windy it will be in our area and that could affect the site choice. Rasp indicates a few wiggles in wind direction especially by the bulk of Long Mountain. Apart from the concern of site choice, the air looks excellent for the time of year, with cloudbase getting up to as much as 4000ft in some places and will I think be very spring like and turbulent, but with a short thermic day of only maybe 2 hours. The air up in north Wales is due to deteriorate - I think because of sea air coming in a long way.

Our weather stations are already showing it quite breezy for this time of the day.

So, If it's correct and the wind is much lighter up north then Llangollen might be ok, and would be the choice for HG's anyway. For PG's then Long Mountain looks a reliable choice if it is breezy, but it's not if too light as so shallow and also if RASP is correct about the wiggle around to the NNE in that area the hill becomes turbulent and not very lifty. Sarn could be good if it is breezy as it always needs more wind that you'd think to be able to soar it. Clunbury or Lan Fawr might be options though launch is very steep at Lan FAwr so Clunbury would be better out of those 2 and does take NW round to N direction.
Elsewhere I think it will be windy enough for Leckhampton but 100 house might be blown out as it's so big but is in the best air in the country.
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Re: Week beginning Monday, 22nd October

Postby Geoffm » Mon Oct 22, 2018 6:37 pm

Paragliders did fly today at Lan Fawr, Sarn and, later, the Mynd. I don't know about anywhere else.

Tuesday is westerly, but windy. Blown out for PGs. Maybe ok for hang gliders, though far from certain.
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Re: Week beginning Monday, 22nd October

Postby Glyn Jones » Tue Oct 23, 2018 12:40 am

Dave where did you go on Monday from Long Mountain, nice flying.
Glyn, wasn't it the most lovely autumn day. Bombed after leaving a cloudstreet at stiperstones, but the long walk back through the sunny scenery made it all the more worthwhile. Loved it all.
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Re: Week beginning Monday, 22nd October

Postby Geoffm » Tue Oct 23, 2018 8:56 pm

Today was blown out most of the day, but would have been fine for hang gliders in the last hour or two of daylight, but no-one was there.

Wednesday should be ok for the Mynd. It's probably going to be WNW, though there could be a bit more north in it, in which case it might be a problem. But chances are it will be fine. Should be paraglidable strengths, possibly a bit light for hangies.

Thursday is west, should be fine for PGs, and, possibly, later in the afternoon good for hangies too.

Rest of the week is blown out, unless Long Mountain will work. We'll have a clearer idea of that as the week progresses.
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Re: Week beginning Monday, 22nd October

Postby Dave Thomas » Wed Oct 24, 2018 6:36 am

Monday saw flying of PGs at lwhere Geoff mentioned and long mountain, lawley and elsewhere 100 house leckhampton liddngton and rhigos, with nice thermals to over 3500ft, though I think some less experienced at ground handling would have found it a bit breezy for launching.

Today has a variation in dirctions on forecasts between west and NW, but launchable speeds. What may be an issue is the low level of the inversion, not much above hill height which coukd affect things and maybe hamper soaring due to the change in wind dirction and speed at that point, but its only an approximation so could be fine on one hill and not another, depending on launch height. Not an xc day like on monday.

Thursday also looking like a mynd day but similar issue due to the high pressure.
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Re: Week beginning Monday, 22nd October

Postby Dave Thomas » Thu Oct 25, 2018 7:02 am

Lots flew the Mynd on Wednesday and Thursday is similar but probably quite a bit stronger wind. More of an HG day rather than PG's but some forecasts show it almost the same speed as yesterday.
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Re: Week beginning Monday, 22nd October

Postby Dave Thomas » Thu Oct 25, 2018 6:33 pm

Looking at the webcams, people were flying pretty well all day today. But it looks like that's the last of it for some while. Blown out even for HG's until next week and then it rains.

For HG's there may be a chance for sea thermals though (Somerset or North Wales coast) if it's not too windy for that this next couple of days.

Sunday just might be light enough wind around here to fly - NE wind direction though.
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