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Forecast week beginning 6 Aug 18.

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Forecast week beginning 6 Aug 18.

Postby Roy Dade » Sun Aug 05, 2018 7:56 pm

This week low pressure systems and fronts will begin to bring some variety to conditions.

Monday winds are light WSW, possibly SW mid morning veering W later, high cloud base 4000ft, plenty of sun, strong thermals. Long Mynd looking good!

Tuesday winds light to moderate WSW veering WNW, should be a good soaring day on the Long Mynd.

Wednesday winds forecast moderate WSW backing SW, things breaking down at this point as we head towards the weekend. Might just be flyable Wed morning but too early to say with certainty.

Thursday onwards looking too windy with periods of rain / showers.
Roy Dade
 
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Re: Forecast week beginning 6 Aug 18.

Postby Geoffm » Mon Aug 06, 2018 7:37 pm

Today was nowhere near as good as the forecast. The BOS set an elapsed time task to Airways, near Ashbourne - 91 km. When they set it, I thought it was a good task, and lots would achieve it, or at least get a significant distance. But only two people got away, most went down. I don't think paragliders did much either, though it did - as it often does - get soarable early evening. The sail planes reported it as being thermic, but they do have a 1000 ft advantage when they come off the cable.

Tuesday is again the Mynd. Winds are a little stronger, so should be ridge soarable. RASP is poorer though, so at the moment thermic activity looks like it might be limited. The BOS will be there again, for their final day.

I adjusted the weather station readings again today - it seemed to be still reading a little too much west, so I knocked off ten degrees, so it should be more or less accurate now. But remember that the reading at the station might well be different from that on the front; and that the cams only show readings every ten minutes or so, and on thermic days, it could easily show an anomalous reading. And when it is genuinely off to the south, it is affected by the trees. Anyway, not perfect, but it should be better now.
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Re: Forecast week beginning 6 Aug 18.

Postby Geoffm » Wed Aug 08, 2018 8:04 am

Although not too windy at the moment, it is forecast to get stronger today, and too windy for PGs, and probably HGs. SW/WSW. A chance it could drop enough in the evening and be on at the Mynd.

Thursday: this could be a really good day on the Mynd. Ridge soarable, very thermic. WNW.

Friday onwards: blown out.
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Re: Forecast week beginning 6 Aug 18.

Postby Roy Dade » Wed Aug 08, 2018 10:45 pm

Forecast for Thursday looking good as Geoff said, cloudbase forecast to peak at 5000ft mid afternoon, surface winds light to start with but forecast to be stronger mid afternoon, possibly on the edge of flyable for PG when thermal gusts are taken into account.

Wind direction W backing more WSW or SW late afternoon. Plenty of solar radiation on the ground with good cumulus potential. Similar conditions to the SE of our area so looking like a good XC day.

Watch out for a possible spike in the late afternoon wind speed associated with possible rain/showers?

Friday, Saturday and a Sunday looking wet and windy.
Roy Dade
 
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Re: Forecast week beginning 6 Aug 18.

Postby Roy Dade » Fri Aug 10, 2018 8:38 pm

Forecast for Saturday shows a depression west of Ireland bringing a warm front over our area. Winds are W / SW but rapidily backing S as the warm front approaches.

Wind speeds are 5-7 mph early morning but increasing to 12-14mph by early afternoon, becoming more gusty later in the day.

All that said pre-frontal conditions can be quite good for ridge soaring and even XC so a trip to Clatter, Camlo or Shepherds Tump might pay off but bear in mind the south gets this deteriorating weather sooner.

Another option might be the Gyrn or a trip to the Peaks or Pennines?

The hazard tomorrow is increasing wind though, getting pinned a real risk at any of the southern LMSC sites.

Sunday wet and windy.

Glancing ahead to next week it looks like we are in for a run of troughs, ridges and fronts, almost Spring like, lots of uncertainty but potentially some epic days?
Roy Dade
 
Posts: 195
Joined: Sun May 05, 2013 6:00 pm

Re: Forecast week beginning 6 Aug 18.

Postby Roy Dade » Fri Aug 10, 2018 8:41 pm

Forecast for Saturday shows a depression west of Ireland bringing a warm front over our area. Winds are W / SW but rapidily backing S as the warm front approaches.

Wind speeds are 5-7 mph early morning but increasing to 12-14mph by early afternoon, becoming more gusty later in the day.

All that said pre-frontal conditions can be quite good for ridge soaring and even XC so a trip to Clatter, Camlo or Shepherds Tump might pay off but bear in mind the south gets this deteriorating weather sooner.

Another option might be the Gyrn or a trip to the Peaks or Pennines?

The hazard tomorrow is increasing wind though, getting pinned a real risk at any of the southern LMSC sites.

Sunday wet and windy.

Glancing ahead to next week it looks like we are in for a run of troughs, ridges and fronts, almost Spring like, lots of uncertainty but potentially some epic days?
Roy Dade
 
Posts: 195
Joined: Sun May 05, 2013 6:00 pm


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